How Much Pressure Is Too Much Pressure?

Usually, when a big stack tries to push other players around, it results in a great poker show.

If done correctly, such a strategy will likely lead you to the top prizes of the poker tournaments. That is unless you get your hand caught in the cookie jar.

It is the case in today's Deepsolver Check, where we look at a hand between Joshua Payne from America and Ruslan Prydryk from Ukraine. The primer was a chip leader, exerting a ton of pressure on every other player in a very late stage in the 2023 WSOP Main Event. The latter was one of the bigger stacks on the table and a guy who contributed significantly to Payne missing the biggest final table of the year.

Did Payne go too far with his aggressive plan, or was the Rydryk, who didn't believe his opponent, too stubborn to fold when he should?

You'll find out soon!

Sometimes, people just hate folding to your bets

You can see how the whole story in the Tweet below:

The hand we're about to discuss starts with a very loose open from Joshua Payne. According to the GTO strategy, this hand is a pure fold. Of course, every hand has its context, so we'll assume this raise may be justifiable to a degree due to the other stack sizes/ICM and table metagame.

Moving to Prydryk, he has a pure defense, especially vs. someone who may be out of line with his opens (and as we've just noticed, Payne was). In theory, A2 could act as a 3-bet bluff, but in practice, it will be much easier to play it passively, keeping the pot small and the opponent's range as wide as possible.

The flop is not exciting for either player

Range-wise, despite having many trips, Prydryk's equity should remain lower than Payne's, even if the latter opens extremely wide. Nevertheless, there's no reason for the Ukrainian player to develop a leading range, especially if he suspects that Payne will do the betting himself.

Side note: up to this point, the American player was by far the most active and aggressive at the table. Given these circumstances, we'll assume he's c-betting 100% of his holdings.

Going back to Prydryk, how should he react to such an aggressive strategy? He has to defend a lot of his range (almost 70%, to be exact). He should mostly call (40%) but can also implement a reasonable amount of raises. We have to point out, though, that when being deep in a big tournament like the WSOP Main Event, you have to be more conservative due to the ICM, so we'd lean more towards calling than raising in such situations.

Turn opens a lot of drawing options

Considering the aggressive dynamics and context of the hand, the OOP player has no interest in developing a leading range. Prydryk agrees as he checks quickly.

On the other hand, Payne has to be a little more selective right now. The eight of clubs does not improve his range tremendously - he still should have a lot of unpaired hands, and he definitely shouldn't bet all of them.

Two things are clear in the GTO strategy when in Payne's shoes.

Firstly, he should overbet, as it's the sizing the poker solver likes to choose the most out of any available.

Secondly, his bluffing range should include a lot of straight draws (distinguished by specific suits).

In-game, Payne nails these pieces of advice and goes for a little over the pot with his 96o.

Without much hesitation, the Ukrainian calls. He shouldn't, though. Although his exact holding should be just a little shy of 50% equity against his opponent's betting range, Prydryk should fold.

There are a few things to consider here.

Firstly, and most importantly, he is facing an overbet, and therefore he needs over 35% equity to make a profitable call. Such a high number allows him to fold many of his holdings without being run over.
Secondly, on average, he'll have many better hands, which equity will be easier to realize here: one-pair hands, decent flush draws, a mix of both, and even some trips.
Thirdly, his exact holding will have a tough time realizing its equity, and no river would improve it to a better category than a bluff catcher.

Prydryk, however, takes little time and makes a questionable (yet, in this very instance, correct) call. Of course, every live poker table has its own dynamics, which can convince players to make certain decisions, so we can't rule out that, for example, Ukrainian picked up a tell from Payne.

The river improves Prydryk, but Payne takes another shot at the pot

As mentioned above, the Ukrainian player can't be too happy. The Ace of clubs is a decent card for his whole range, but it does not allow him to bet. His exact hand is barely a bluff catcher, and given his overall range, there's no reason to develop a leading range.

Now, Payne has a big decision - should he bluff, and if yes, what size should he choose? Even though his actual range shouldn't contain many Aces, he can bet almost 45% of his whole range.

As for sizing, he should lean towards going all in - his range should have enough strong hands to support such a big bet. Additionally, in the actual hand, shoving would add even more pressure on his opponent, who would be calling for his tournament life, and it would most likely be the most challenging call of his life.

Considering the combos to bluff with, Payne is once again spot on. His exact combo has zero equity and doesn't block much of Prydryk's folding range.

Quite astonishingly, Prydryk is not amused and calls quickly. His lack of hesitation begs the question: should he?

Not necessarily. In this exact situation, he should choose combos to call carefully. Barring the fact that the Ukrainian player should fold the turn, he should fold his weakest top two pair combos. Prydryk should also lean towards calling more Tx combos that block backdoor flushes (like KcTx, QcTx or T5s) and unblock missed straight draws (so, they do not contain J's, 9's or 7's).

This time, however, his gut feeling was right, letting him scoop the pot, which helped him finish fifth and win $2,4 M!

GTO poker key insights

When your opponent overbets, you can (and should) fold many marginal hands, even against an extremely aggressive player. Always consider how much equity you need to call and how often you'll be able to realize it.

Putting a ton of pressure on your opponents in the later stages of big tournaments is a way to go and will net you a lot of chips. Sometimes, however, when your image is very loose, your opponents won't fold even when they theoretically should.

Don't get discouraged, though. A smart and aggressive postflop plan will profit you more often than not.

Undoubtedly, Deepsolver is one of the best tools for crafting such plans - check it out yourself and start improving your poker skills.

Learn more about Deepsolver:

Also, see our other Deepsolver Checks:

• Deepsolver Check #1: Calling With an Ace High for Over $400k!
• Deepsolver Check #2: What to Call When Durrrr Puts You All-in?
• Deepsolver Check #3: Top Pro Outplayed at the 2023 WSOP Main Event!
• Deepsolver Check #4: Middle Set vs. Top Two Deep in the 2023 WSOP ME: Could Villa Fold?