Was This Bluff From a Heads-up for Over $2 Million Correct?

Undoubtedly, Bryn Kenney is a controversial figure in the poker community. In the last few years, he has been linked to at least a few dubious poker stories, but since no consequences were drawn, it’s not our job to judge him.

There’s also one thing that is undoubtedly true about Bryn - he’s pretty damn good at poker, and he proved it once again this summer by winning the biggest event of the recent Triton Series - Luxon Invitational with a buy-in of $262,500.

This cyclical event has a very peculiar structure. The so-called poker VIPs are invited to participate, and each can invite one poker pro to play. Both groups play separately on day one; the remaining field merges on a subsequent day.

In the latest edition of the Luxon Invitational, Bryn Kenney’s opponent was one of the invited recreational players - Talal Shakerchi. That being said, labeling him as an amateur might be an understatement. While he is not a professional poker player, Talal has been playing the game for years, winning a 2016 WCOOP Main Event for $1,4M and amassing a respectable $18M in live tournament earnings with his aggressive and fearless style.

A top-tier professional vs. an accomplished and relentless businessman was excellent material for a heads-up for over $2M, and it delivered!

As usual, you can watch the whole hand yourself; it starts around 4:22:25.

The heads-up started even, but over time, Bryn gained a 2:1 advantage in chips

The hand we’ll cover starts with Kenney having around 23M (77 BB) in chips to 11M (37 BB) of Shakerchi. Bryn opens the action to a 2.3 BB raise from the button with K8o. One can choose from many possible approaches in an HU match, from a very limp-heavy strategy to raising small with a very wide range, and we can't rule out in-between strategies. There are merits to all of them. Nevertheless, a small raise with Bryn's exact holding is definitely a sound play.

Talal, on the other hand, has two most prevalent options to choose from. Against a min-raise, his exact hand would be a mandatory call; against a 2.3 BB open, it's probably too loose of defense since realizing it's EV would be challenging. However, the English businessman is known for not shying away from the action, so he calls quickly, and both players take a flop.

The QJ9 flop is a dynamic one

Usually, high boards (containing two or more broadway cards) are favorable for the in-position player. Things are no different this time, and the BU range has a 52% to 48% equity lead on the QJ9.

On this board, the BU should have a solid nut advantage (having QQ, JJ, 99, all of the two pairs, overpairs, and straights in the range). That being said, the BB, while lacking some of the best possible combos, has many hands that can comfortably continue vs. a bet.

This quality is reflected in the IP strategy - the button player shouldn’t continue to bet mindlessly. Solver suggests betting with a ⅓ sizing around 40% of the time. There are a lot of hands that make sense as a c-bet: mostly second pairs or better and quite a lot of combos with a straight draw. K8o should be, according to the solver, a high-frequency bet, and Bryn seems to agree.

The consequence of the aforementioned equity advantage on the flop is visualized on the screen below. The BB shouldn't raise much, and the best way to defend OOP is to call. This time the strategy is very straightforward: Talal should defend all his hands with an open-ended straight draw, a gutshot with an overcard or better. T5 falls in the first category, and unsurprisingly Talal continues.

Usually, turns pairing the board are great for the out-of-position player

And that’s the case in this instance. Nine of hearts strengthens a significant portion of the BB’s range (Talal should have a lot of 9x preflop, and as we’ve found out earlier, he should call all of them on the flop). It’s also worth noting how strong the equity shift is; now, the out-of-position player leads 59% to 41%. This change encourages the solver to lead often on this exact turn card. That being said, Talal wasn’t leading turns a lot after check/calling the flop.

This turn forces Bryn to be more selective with the hands he bets. While he still has all the nut combinations, he shouldn’t bet too thinly. Many of his top and second pairs are checks now; the same is true for a big portion of the draws, which now would like to realize their equity. K8o is a combo that can improve on some rivers, can win at showdowns quite often, is not interested in building a pot, and would hate to be check-raised. All of those circumstances make it a decent candidate for a check back.

The river doesn’t change much

Since the seven on the river very rarely improves either player, we can draw a few conclusions:

• the OOP position player should maintain the solid equity he gained on the turn.
• this river should allow him to bet quite often.
• he can even use an overbet sizing, which is quite rare for an out-of-position player.

As we’ve established, Talal shouldn’t have much of a raising range on the earlier streets. Combining that with the favorable runout and the fact that his range should be centred around strong pairs with an addition of the trips and quite a few straights and full house combos allows him to implement an aggressive strategy.

On the other hand, Bryn’s range is more polar: it has all of the nut combos but lacks the trips and additionally has a solid chunk of hands that either have to bet to win a pot or have some chances of winning the pot but won’t bet.

With his combo, Talal has almost 0% to win at showdown. When checked to, Bryn will either bet or check back with hands that beat ten high. Considering that Shakerchi has a lot of strong bets to choose from, his holding is a mandatory bluff. According to the solver, he can even choose to go ham, using an overbet sizing.

Versus a bet, Bryn has a tough nut to crack. On the one hand, he’s getting ~5:1 odds, which means he needs to be good slightly more than 18% of the time. On the other hand, his opponent has a lot of potential value bets - Talal can value bet thinly almost all of his second and top pairs. What makes things worse, the only reasonable bluffs that Kenney beats are naked Tx hands.

What would the solver do in this spot?

Firstly, let’s think about Bryn’s range. He has a few nut combos (straight, full house or quads) that can raise for value (around 6% of his range). Then he has a lot of combos (around 40%) of one pair hands (which are now technically two pairs). Lastly, he has a share of Ace highs (19%), King highs (10%) and the rest of the hands without much or any showdown value (around 25%).

According to the solver, Bryn’s range has enough Ace highs (or better) to defend, so he can fold his King highs. His particular combo is a decent bluff-raising candidate since it blocks both the straights and a few solid valuebets.

Unless Talal bluffs this exact spot with an overly high frequency, Bryn’s call is a little too light, given how strong the OOP range is. Of course, life poker has its nuances, and the life dynamic is a thing to consider, but in the vacuum, Bryn’s range should be strong enough that he doesn’t need to defend as wide as he did.

However, being one of the most accomplished tournament players probably requires intuition and willingness to take risks. Despite being too loose according to GTO strategy, Bryn makes a call and extends his lead over his fierce opponent.

The momentum he gained thanks to this hero call wasn’t wasted, as soon after this hand, Bryn beat his opponent and lifted the trophy.

GTO poker insights

Although Bryn’s river play wasn’t 100% solver-approved, there are at least two thighs to learn from this hand:

• Whenever you’re about to hero call on a river, think about your range as a whole, how wide you should defend and how often you’ll have a better hand to do so.
• Whenever you’re out of position, learn to identify when the runouts favors you as the OOP player, and don't shy away from betting (even on the larger side) when it’s the best for your range.

Both guidelines require you to practice a lot, and there’s hardly a better way to do so than studying with Deepsolver. Try it out for yourself with a seven days free trial.

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Also, see our other Deepsolver Checks:

• Deepsolver Check #1: Calling With an Ace High for Over $400k!
• Deepsolver Check #2: What to Call When Durrrr Puts You All-in?
• Deepsolver Check #3: Top Pro Outplayed at the 2023 WSOP Main Event!
• Deepsolver Check #4: Middle Set vs. Top Two Deep in the 2023 WSOP ME: Could Villa Fold?
• Deepsolver Check #5: How Much Pressure Is Too Much Pressure?