How to a Put Maximum Pressure on Your Opponent: Doug Polk’s Edition

What happens when two elite players meet in a heads-up match with a lot of money and bragging rights at stake? A lot of tense poker action is guaranteed.

In late March 2023, Doug Polk, considered one of the best heads-up poker players in the world, issued an open challenge for anybody wishing to test their skills. The rules are pretty straightforward:

So far, only four people have been brave enough to take on the HU specialist:

Bill Perkins (a businessman, philanthropist and poker aficionado),
Scott Ball (two-time WSOP bracelet winner)
Kevin Rabichow (former full-time heads-up pro)
Owen Messere (young online pro)

As of the date of writing these words (late September 2023), Doug’s total winnings sum to a healthy $380,400. This challenge turned out to be not only an occasion to score some big bucks but also an excellent advertisement for the Lodge Card Club (which he co-owns), where all of the matches are held.

In this article, we’d like to look at one of the hands from the last match against Owen Messere, in which a standard open-raise turned into a bet/overbet/overbet with an eight high.

A poker hand starting like many others

The hand we’re referring to is in the video depicting the match; it starts at 6:21:11.

As we’ve already teased, the action preflop is almost trivial: a raise to a 2.5 BB from Doug and a call from Owen. Both are super standard; if anything, Owen could consider 3-betting his hand.

The flop is interesting for both players; Doug flops the open-ended straight draw, while Owen has an overcard and a gutshot straight draw to the nuts.

Most of the time, the OOP player is so disadvantageous on the flop that their strategy is either a pure check or close to it. This hand happens at very deep stacks (both players have 250 BB+, which is much more than the usual hands we check), but his logic also applies here. Since Owen had no incentive to slowplay preflop, he doesn’t have any overpairs to the board, and he also can’t have the top and middle set. While Messere can have some high equity hands, like two pairs, he lacks the nuts, so his go-to strategy should be a pure check one.

On the other hand, Doug can go quite aggressive on this board; he has a lot of two pairs (or better) combos and a decent number of high equity draws, which will be great candidates for bluffing later on. His exact combo falls into the latter category, so he rightfully chooses to bet ⅔ of the pot.

Since both players are so deep, choosing the bigger sizing on the flop makes more sense. It is much easier for the IP player to inflate the pot with the strongest holdings.

There is a lot of mixing involved on the flop

As we’ve mentioned, Owen lacks the nuts on this board (except for 66), so almost no combo in his range (except for 66, 96 and Q6) would like to raise. When only a few out of a few hundred (over 500 in this case) combos are willing to raise, it’s better to simplify your strategy and play only call/fold strategy. The expected value loss will be negligible (if any), and such a strategy will be much easier for you to implement.

When we simplify the strategy to either a call or a fold, we get nice and clean guidelines, according to which Owen’s exact combo is a pure call.

Owen should have almost no raises

The turn is a brick, but Doug Polk is not slowing down

Four of Diamonds is as much of a brick turn as possible. It doesn’t increase the number of nuts in the BB range, so once again, Owen has no incentive to develop a leading range. As an elite player, he’s definitely aware of that, so unsurprisingly, he checks to Doug.

The Lodge co-owner, on the other hand, has a much more interesting choice. Three paths make sense as an IP player. Firstly, some weaker hands with showdown equity like to check, along with the “air hands” that cannot improve significantly on the river. The hands that would like to bet can choose between two sizings: ⅔ or a 1.5 pot overbet. Most of the value hands mix except for a few: a bottom and a middle set, and most of the two pairs prefer betting big since they either benefit from protection or unblock the OOP player's calling range.

The only hand that clearly likes the smaller bet is the top set, which is understandable - it doesn’t need much protection and heavily blocks the potential Messere’s calling range.

In a nutshell, Doug’s got plenty of value hands; he can go with a very aggressive strategy that also includes a lot of various draws. 87 is on the premium draws to choose from since a five always makes it the nuts, ten makes it the third nuts (which would be very painful for Polk in this exact case), and even hitting a third pair on the river could be enough to scoop the pot.

Doug correctly identifies that he can overbet often

Despite having a gutshot to the nuts with an overcard, Owen can’t be thrilled facing an overbet (which also proves why it’s such an effective bet). Once again, the BB player is in a situation where it doesn’t make sense to raise and has to defend his whole range by calling. Against a massive bet, the solver folds the weakest pairs in this situation. Only the top pairs (and better) are always calling.

KJ is not a mandatory call

Owen's exact combo is in a peculiar spot. On the one hand, it almost never will win on a showdown unimproved (Doug will likely bet the worse hands once again and check back the combos that beat KJ). On the other hand, if Owen hits a top pair or a straight, he’s likely to take advantage of Polk’s perceived aggression.

Whatever way we’ll look at this spot, it's not an easy decision. Eventually, Owen decides to call, and both players get to the 40 BB river, with King high being the best hand.

The river finally pairs someone

Jack of Spades improves Owen's hand to a second pair, a hand which is usually quite a strong one in heads-up poker. However, given the action on earlier streets and how devoid of the nuts is Owen’s range, he once again has to check.

Despite improving Owen’s actual hand, this card is even better for Doug. He still has quite a few two-pair+ combos, and some of his gutshot became straight. The IP player nut advantage is even more significant now, which translates into another opportunity for an overbet.

Once again, overbetting is a way to go for Doug

Thanks to having an extensive range of value hands, Doug can bluff a lot here. His exact combo is an excellent choice to do so - 87 has 0% equity; it doesn’t block missed straight draws and blocks some potential traps in the form of T8.

Summarizing these qualities could result in only one outcome - a second consecutive, spot-on overbet from Doug.

Facing yet another massive bet, Owen, understandably so, is in the world of hurt. Since Doug is known for a very aggressive approach, folding a second pair with a strong kicker might seem like a stretch and an invitation to being run over.

What does the solver advise? According to our computer friend, folding KJ, while it feels bad, is justifiable. Against an overbet, Owen doesn’t have to defend more than ~40% of his hands. His passive strategy on later streets should result in him having enough better holdings to call (like top pairs, two pairs, or pairs blocking straight).

Against such a big bet, folding KJ is justifiable

In-game, Owen ponders his option for quite a while and ultimately lets Doug’s bluff through, letting his strong second pair go.

GTO poker insights

Since this time Doug didn’t have it might look like a bad fold, but taking the bigger picture into account, both players played this hand extremely well. Things worth learning from this hand:

Whenever you have a solid nut advantage on a big SPR, overbets should be considered a part of your strategy, as they will put your opponent in terrible situations.
When your opponent has a nut advantage you don’t have to hero call often vs the overbets.

Overall, this hand is a great testament to how intriguing heads-up poker played on deep stacks can be. There’s no other poker format that will thoroughly test your skills, and there’s no better way to improve your poker skills than Deepsolver.

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