Sometimes, You Have to Let Your Opponent Bluff You…

Heads-up skills are invaluable in tournament poker; after all, at the end of every MTT, there's a heads-up for the most significant pay jump. With so much money on the line, watching the best players battling it out is a great way to learn what GTO poker should look like.

In today's Deepsolver Check, we’re going to take a look at the hand from one of the biggest heads-ups in recent months - a battle for the trophy, title and $2,76M in the $300,000 Super High Roller Bowl VIII.

Despite only 20 players deciding to participate in the event, the field was stacked, with the likes of Daniel Negreanu, Jason Koon, Bryn Kenney, Chris Brewer, Justin Bonomo, Nick Petrangelo, Stephen Chidwick, Isaac Haxton and Andrew Lichtenberg in the competition.

After almost three days of battling back and forth, only Haxton and Lichtenberg remained in the race for the prestigious title.

When Ike was leading 4:1, Andrew hit two pairs and had a chance to change the match's momentum.

Did he seize the opportunity?

As usual, you can watch the whole hand here:

It all starts innocently enough

Both players get dealt mediocre hands, even for heads-up standards: K2o for Haaxton and 92s for Lichtenberg. Unsurprisingly, Ike decides to open limp his holding on the button, and given a chance, Lichtenberger opts to see a free flop.

The AT2 flop gives a nut advantage to Ike since he could have open-limped both Aces and Tens and, at the same time, mixed in a few stronger Ax. Lichtenberg, on the other hand, closing the action preflop can’t have many strong holdings since all of the nut combos on this board would have raised preflop.

Understandably, Andrew checks to Ike, as we assume he would do so with all of his range.

Given his nut advantage, Ike can bet a lot here, and K2o is a great candidate to do so - it has a pair that can improve to a much stronger holding while requiring some protection and a nut backdoor flush draw that may come in handy on some runouts.

Facing a bet, Lichtenberger has a reasonably easy decision; he should either call or fold with his holding (due to the nature of ranges, the solver doesn’t often raise on such board structure). Andrew should continue with most Jack Highs, every Queen or King High and draws.  His exact holding should have over 50% equity vs Haaxton’s range, making it an easy call.

The turn improves both players

Nine of clubs on the turn improves Andrew’s hand to two pairs, at the same time improving Ike’s draw to nut flush draw.

The solver doesn’t use leading here as an out-of-position player. Despite the turn card swinging equity advantage on the OOP side a bit, the BB shouldn't lead since they would still be missing the nut combinations that are in the IP player’s range. This is a common correlation in such scenarios.

On the other hand, Ike has a decision to make. Should he keep betting with his bottom pair and nut flush draw, or should he check back to realize his equity?

Our poker solver likes checking back a lot here. The most prominent hands to do so are one-pair hands, which would hate to be check-raised. Most mediocre-strength hands (like weak pairs, middle pairs, pocket pairs and a big chunk of top pairs) prefer checking.

However, the lower the pair and the higher the flush draw, the more sense it makes to bet. Ike's exact hand falls into this category. His pair of twos has some showdown value, but it’s not necessarily the best hand, and every card on the river can outdraw it. Moreover, his nut flush draw adds a ton of equity to his hand (along with the fold equity) and a potential to bet any river, representing nut flush. Adding these qualities results in a pure bet recommendation for all Kc2x hands from the solver.

Ike, however, has other plans and decides to check back, leaving real fireworks for the river.

The river doesn’t change much, but the action gets hectic

Seeing Ike checking back must have been a real treat to Andrew. On this river, his hand should be good a vast majority of the time, and simultaneously, Ike's range should be less nut-heavy.

Combining the checkback and the fact that offsuit seven is a favourable card for the Big Blind results in the ability for an out-of-position player to develop an overbetting range. Solver mixes between three sizings when betting, but the preferable hand to overbet here are two pair combos, along with some high flush blockers.

Andrew is spot on with his sizing and combination choice and opts for a 150% pot bet.

How should Ike react to such an aggressive line? Given his pot odds of around 38%, he can (and should) fold a lot. He has, however, a crucial card in his hand - the King of clubs. The nut flush blocker is super relevant here. Having this card opens additional bluff opportunities for Haaxton.

When it comes to value raises, Haaxton should be mostly jamming his straights (and flushes, if he elects to check back turn with any). How should he balance it with bluffs? Since Ike will have that much value raises in this spot, there’s no need to bluff that often, but when he does, he should prioritize having the King of clubs.

Since our sim assumed that Kc2x was barrelling the turn, it’s not present on the river. The solver, however, chooses other unpaired hands with King of clubs (like K8 or KJ) as a bluff candidate.

What should Andrew do, facing an all-in raise? He is, understandably, in a world of hurt, given he just got shoved on over an overbet. What should Andrew be calling with? Apart from the “obvious” calls (meaning flushes), he should be defending with two-pair combos and straights.

However, even his two pairs are not thrilled to put more chips into the pot. Most combos mix calling and folding, but his best calls are the ones that block flushes (which are Tx7c and 9x7c) and Aces up.

The two pairs he’s actually holding are not strong enough to make a call, and after a while, Andrew realizes that. While it may seem like a poor fold when knowing the cards, it’s a disciplined and theory-backed-up one. Well played!

Winning that pot extends Ike Haxton’s lead, who beats Andrew soon after, winning a trophy and $2,76M.

GTO poker insights

Key takeaways from this hand are:

• holding a nut flush blocker on an unpaired board is critical to constructing bluffing range, even vs the overbets.
• remember to rank your bluff catchers correctly (using the blockers) whenever you use the range advantage to bet big.

Knowing what to bluff and what hand to bluffcatch with is a powerful skill. You can develop it by making analyses like the one you read yourself. Anywhere you want, and with any hand you’d like, thanks to Deepsolver.

See for yourself how easy studying even complex spots can be. Try it out for yourself with a seven-day free trial.

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Also, see our other Deepsolver Checks:

• Deepsolver Check #1: Calling With an Ace High for Over $400k!
• Deepsolver Check #2: What to Call When Durrrr Puts You All-in?
• Deepsolver Check #3: Top Pro Outplayed at the 2023 WSOP Main Event!
• Deepsolver Check #4: Middle Set vs. Top Two Deep in the 2023 WSOP ME: Could Villa Fold?
• Deepsolver Check #5: How Much Pressure Is Too Much Pressure?
• Deepsolver Check #6: Was This Bluff From a Heads-up for Over $2 Million Correct?
• Deepsolver Check #7: Would You Call For Your Tournament Life There?