Middle Set vs. Top Two Deep in the 2023 WSOP ME: Could Villa Fold?
Poker multi-table tournaments are an experience like no other.
Every decision can have profound implications whenever you are deep in a big event. A good bluff catch can earn you hundreds of thousands of dollars, while a small misplay can snowball into busting out.
There is no better tournament to highlight the magnitude of tough decisions than the WSOP Main Event. It's probably the softest tournament with a hefty $10,000 buy-in, but still, it is not a walk in the park. Several days of grind require a lot of preparation and a solid mindset to keep playing your A-game.
During such a long period, you're more than likely to find yourself in spots that will test a wide variety of your poker skills. Today we have a great example of a very tough decision and, at the same time (spoiler alert), proof that even when you are right, poker can be a cruel game.
In this article, we'll discuss the hand from day 7 of the 2023 WSOP Main Event between Jose Aguilera from Spain and Alexander Villa from Canada.
You can see how the action unfolded in the video below (it's the last hand, starting around 2:01:45 ):
GTO poker or not, top set versus top pair with a top kicker equals action
The hand in question starts with the Villa's open on the Cutoff. It's clearly a fine decision, as A8o should be opened 100% here. When it comes to Aguilera, his hand prefers flatting over 3-betting. The case for raising preflop could be made, but we like calling a lot given the ICM implications and decent equity realization from 88.
On the flop, checking the whole range out of position is standard. At such low and connected board leading could be a strategy to consider, but be aware that it adds a layer of complexity to an already complex decision tree.
On the other side of the table, Villa has a significant decision to make. As mentioned above, it's not an incredible board for the in-position player since the BB has literally every possible nut combination here (probably excluding 74o). That being said, a top pair with a top kicker is a great hand to bet - it has a lot of equity, can withstand raises and blocks a significant value portion of the BB's range.
Villa probably thinks alike and makes a continuation bet.
Going back to Aguilera, he's facing a consequential decision. On the one hand, he can call, concealing the strength of his hand, keeping Villa's range wide and allowing his bluffs to catch up. The downside is that many turns can slow down or even kill the action, and his hand, despite having a lot of equity, is not immune to being outdrawn.
On the other hand, Aguilera can raise, immediately extracting value from the top of his range, forcing Villa to put more money into the pot with mediocre holdings. The drawback is that raising will force BU to fold zero and near-zero equity hands, which could catch up some showdown value on later streets or try to bluff the pot.
Given both options have merits, which one is prevalent? The solver likes both approaches, but with Aguilera's exact combo, the GTO strategy is to raise.
While our poker solver mixes its plays with different combinations in this spot, it is a good rule of thumb to simplify the flop strategy to the particular categories of hands.
Villa can't be thrilled to face a check-raise on such a dynamic board. His exact hand, however, is far from folding. He still should have around 50% equity vs Spaniard's range and will be ahead often.
The Ace on the turn spells disaster for the Canadian player
Ace, in general, is not a great card for the out-of-position player (he shouldn't have many Aces in his range, certainly less than the in-position player). As a result, Aguilera should apply a check-heavy strategy. Once again, his exact holding (having almost 90% equity vs Villa's presumed range) likes to bet, which, we believe, would be a natural thing to do for many players in his shoes.
Even if he bets small, Aguilera will be able to shove the river with about a stack-to-pot ratio of 1. A solid part of Villa's turn range should contain pocket pairs, one-pair hands, two-pairs combos, and a few sets. Against such a range, a set of eights does not need much protection.
Improving to the two pairs, Villa can't fold against a small size. He should mostly call his A8 combos. In theory, he can shove some of them, but given the ICM implications and the fact he's in a position, simplifying the strategy to a call-only approach seemsto be the best option.
The river dismays both players
At first glance, the seven is a terrible card for Aguilera's hand. Not only is it harder for him to get value from Villa, but a small portion of Canadian's range now beats him.
What should the Big Blind do here? Should he check his now-middle set? No, Aguilera correctly identifies that he still has an incentive to bet. Since the seven usually doesn't improve the Canadian player either, it's very likely that when checked to, Villa checks back a lot of his middle-strength hands, which would be a disastrous loss of value.
Additionally, the set of eights would never fold to a jam, so it might bet as well, at least sometimes forcing Villa to call with holdings which would like to check back.
Villa has a hell of a decision now. On the one hand, the seven isn't a great card for his range. On the other hand, he rarely will have something better than the top two in this spot. The fact that it's the seventh day of the biggest tournament of the year doesn't make this decision easier, but he has to choose.
What would a solver do in this scenario?
The GTO strategy here is straightforward. A8 should be almost a 100% call. The reasoning here is simple - if your opponent ever bluffs in this spot, A8 is one of the strongest holdings you can have, and it unblocks the villain's bluff. If you are willing to fold hands as strong as the top two pairs here, you open yourself to being exploited by capable opponents.
The only reason to fold A8 would be if you know your opponent never bluffs. And, truth be told, you can never be sure of that.
In-game, after a few minutes of pure agony, Villa finds the guts to make the call of his life, and unfortunately for him, he sees the bad news.
Despite the outcome, we must commend the Canadian player for not shying away from risking his tournament life in a tough spot. Well played!
GTO poker in practice: key insights
There are a few things to learn from this hand, but most importantly, it's a good illustration of how you should approach bluff catching in big spots on the river.
Whenever you find yourself facing a big river shove, ask yourself a few questions:
- does your hand unblock the villain's bluffs?
- how high is your exact hand in your overall range?
- how often is your opponent able to bluff on a certain runout?
Such spots will always be challenging, as it's the nature of the poker game, but if you prepare a suitable framework to use in advance, they will be less painful and easier to analyze in a tense environment.
An what is the best way to prepare such a framework? Studying GTO with Deepsolver!
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